1. Introduction
In the year 2025 - the last year of 5 Years Plan 2021 - 2025, Vietnam has had a bold move as the government decided to set the goal of GDP growth to 8%-10%, considerably high compared to the National Assembly assigned target (6.5%-7%). Although this is a promising milestone, many challenges await, especially during a fluctuating global economy. Is this goal an opportunity for Vietnam to rise above or is it just an unrealistic outlook amidst a difficult economic situation?
2. The Current Situation and Government Actions
In 2024, Vietnam’s economy acknowledged a positive outcome with GDP growth rate reaching 7.09%, exceeding the target set by the National Assembly. Specifically, the GDP scale reached 476.3 billion USD and GDP per capita increased to 4.700 USD, verifying the remarkable improvement in income (Vũ, 2025). This impressive accomplishment is achieved owing to the massive recovery of service and industrial sectors and the stability of agriculture. In this year, the government continued to set out higher economic development targets, prioritizing promoting public investment, improving business environment and sustainable development.
Currently, Vietnam governance is conducting many drastic measures in order to reach a GDP growth rate of over 8% in 2025. With the base of institutional improvement within the government, streamlining the state apparatus, the Congress have made changes to important laws such as Law on organization of the National Assembly, Government, local authorities and Law on promulgation of legal documents. Furthermore, institutional reform has made unprecedented progress, demonstrated by the fact that the Land Law, Real Estate Business Law, Housing Law, etc came into effect 5 months earlier, helping policies to quickly be put into practice. In addition, our government focuses on supplementing public investment capital and saving regular expenditures to spend more on strategic infrastructure such as railways and airports.
3. A Quantum Leap or Merely a Symbolic Target?
Although Viet Nam is considered as a country that has potential growth in 2025, in the face of a tough global economy in recent years, the expected growth rate is still challenging.First of all, it is evident that protectionist trade policies are resurging in the United States. Accordingly, Donal Trump has outlined a tariff plan aimed at strengthening the position of the US dollar and countering what he deemed “unfair” trade practices from partners. Since January 20,2025, the Trump administration has implemented a series of tax hikes on goods entering the US, showing no concessions even to close partners such as: Mexico and Canada. Additionally, the growth target contracting model assigned to localities has placed pressure on domestic enterprises. For domestic production, many localities have been assigned double-digit GRDP targets. In the face of an unpredictable economic war background with the strict US tariff policies on its partners, achieving a GDP growth rate of 8% is still a tough goal for Vietnamese businesses in particular and the national economy as a whole.
Vietnam’s impressive figures in the recent period, as outlined in the current situation, demonstrate that the country has established a solid initial foundation on its path toward its goals. Additionally, one of Vietnam’s key advantages in joining the international market is its extensive network of free trade agreements (FTAs). Despite facing formidable competitors such as Thailand, which majors in food processing and tourism, and India, known for its strengths in information technology and software outsourcing, Vietnam remains an attractive investment destination thanks to its favorable geographic location, competitive labor costs, and, notably, its stable political environment and increasingly open and consistent investment policies.
The China + 1 strategy adopted by companies seeking to reduce risks associated with China is also considered a crucial factor driving a massive flow of FDI from China to Vietnam. Vietnam’s foreign currency reserves and public debt indicators have also remained stable, thanks to many consecutive years of being a net exporter. This achievement is attributable to a comprehensive FTA network with diverse partners - for example, the EVFTA has significantly reduced tariffs on Vietnamese goods exported to Europe, especially benefiting key sectors such as textiles, seafood, and agriculture. In terms of demographics, Vietnam’s golden population structure is expected to be maintained for at least the next 10 years, accompanied by rising income and consumption levels. This opens up significant opportunities for the retail and service sectors, as well as making Vietnam an attractive investment destination with an abundant labor force.
It can be clearly seen that, although Vietnam is facing many challenges both domestically and internationally, the country also holds many valuable opportunities that need to be properly leveraged in order to achieve its growth targets.
4. Conclusion
The Vietnamese economy is still on a growth trajectory, and setting ambitious targets is not just a bold movement, but it’s also a necessity to motivate all stakeholders to maximize their potential. Therefore, while this year’s target is certainly challenging, with the concerted efforts of the Party, the government, and the people, achieving an 8% growth rate is entirely promising.
(Posted in June 2025)
AUTHORS
Tong Gia Linh, Faculty of International Economics, 49th cohort, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam.
Pham Bao Khanh, Faculty of International Economics, 51st cohort, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam.
Nguyen Le Doanh Doanh, Class 12X1, Vietnam-Australia School, Hanoi.
GRAPHIC DESIGNER
Pham Thi Hong Nhung, Faculty of International Communication and Culture, 51st cohort, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam.
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